Tue, Mar 14, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 29 | 09 | 114 | 332 |
| EDM | 26 | 316 | 111 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20EDMDerek RyanAssists: Ryan McLeod, Devin Shore · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:48OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 12:34EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Warren Foegele, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 18:53OTTTim StützleSHAssists: Dylan Gambrell, Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 5:39EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 16:17EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Warren Foegele · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 19:59EDMNick BjugstadAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Klim Kostin · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 5:28OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson, Patrick Brown · Snap, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 17:47EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Evander Kane, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:42EDMNick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:33OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:05OTTPatrick Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:54EDMCody Ceci: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:00OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:46EDMRyan McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:49EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:32EDMConnor McDavid: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle11:56
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Watson – Gauthier – Kastelic2:23
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Pinto8:12
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Watson – Brown – Gambrell2:29
xG 0.01–0.37 (3%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Holden – Brannstrom8:36
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 3–9goals 0–2
- Hamonic – Sanderson12:53
xG 0.60–1.04 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Chychrun – Zub15:32
xG 0.40–1.05 (27%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Yamamoto8:58
xG 0.78–0.14 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Foegele8:35
xG 0.56–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Janmark – Kostin3:25
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Shore – Ryan – McLeod5:39
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais11:49
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Ceci – Nurse14:50
xG 0.83–0.35 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:37
xG 0.91–0.51 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).