Sat, Mar 18, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 2, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 212 | 012 | 235 |
| FLA | 016 | 014 | 411 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:16NJDNico HischierSHAssists: John Marino, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 7:43NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 6:14FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Marc Staal, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 7:54FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 8:44FLAMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Radko Gudas · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:39FLASam ReinhartENAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:34FLACarter Verhaeghe: Holding2 min
- P2 1:39NJDBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:52FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 14:08NJDDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:45NJDTomas Tatar: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:48NJDDamon Severson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Lazar – McLeod – Sharangovich6:37
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer9:44
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Haula – Meier – Boqvist9:58
xG 0.62–0.87 (42%)attempts 15–18goals 1–2
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes10:50
xG 0.35–0.67 (35%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Graves2:36
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Smith – Severson12:27
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Severson2:40
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:12
xG 0.69–0.18 (80%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Duclair – Barkov – Luostarinen7:24
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Staal – Cousins – White8:02
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Lomberg – Lundell5:21
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling13:49
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour13:58
xG 1.00–0.65 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Montour – Forsling2:17
xG 0.05–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).