Tue, Mar 21, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 113 | 110 | 233 |
| MTL | 210 | 16 | 04 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:27MTLKirby DachAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 14:00MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Denis Gurianov, Justin Barron · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 8:58TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 16:58MTLMike MathesonGWGAssists: David Savard, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 14:54TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Ross Colton, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:11TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:49MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:30MTLDenis Gurianov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:08MTLMichael Pezzetta: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:08TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belzile won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Colton4:54
xG 0.66–0.02 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul6:35
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Jeannot5:40
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Colton2:14
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Sergachev11:50
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 20–8goals 0–2
- Cole – Cernak12:12
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:40
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Harvey-Pinard – Dach11:40
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Belzile10:45
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Gurianov9:46
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Tierney – Pitlick – Pezzetta7:46
xG 0.10–0.58 (15%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Barron10:25
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Matheson – Barron2:39
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Wideman – Kovacevic10:25
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).