Wed, Mar 22, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 321 | 215 | 545 |
| COL | 011 | 19 | 110 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:11PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:06PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Bat, 0.38 xG2–0
- P2 11:35COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 14:12PITJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 10:28COLDevon ToewsPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 12:51PITJeff CarterAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Drew O'Connor · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 19:41PITBryan RustENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.54 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:16PITBryan Rust: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:50COLKurtis MacDermid: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:39COLAndrew Cogliano: Holding2 min
- P2 12:57COLLogan O'Connor: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:13PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:13COLDarren Helm: Holding2 min
- P2 15:13COLDarren Helm: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:08PITChad Ruhwedel: Holding2 min
- P3 9:12PITJosh Archibald: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Heinen – Poehling6:16
xG 0.59–0.17 (77%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell8:04
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Archibald – O'Connor6:41
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel10:37
xG 0.43–1.28 (25%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Friedman9:30
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel12:40
xG 0.68–0.55 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Letang – Joseph15:00
xG 0.67–1.62 (29%)attempts 18–23goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Malgin11:27
xG 1.08–0.64 (63%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Newhook8:28
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor5:06
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard11:26
xG 1.24–0.95 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Johnson – Byram5:51
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Hunt – Byram3:12
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).