Thu, Mar 23, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
San Jose Sharks 2, Vancouver Canucks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 04 | 14 | 219 |
| VAN | 38 | 18 | 35 | 721 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15VANJ.T. MillerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:17VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Elias Pettersson, Anthony Beauvillier · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 9:34SJSTomas HertlAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jacob Peterson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 19:59VANDakota JoshuaGWGAssists: Conor Garland, Nils Aman · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 12:24VANConor GarlandAssists: Tyler Myers, Andrei Kuzmenko · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 9:55SJSAndrew AgozzinoSHAssists: Noah Gregor · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 10:10VANVasily PodkolzinAssists: Tyler Myers, Dakota Joshua · Snap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 11:28VANPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–6
- P3 19:46VANSheldon DriesSHAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:34SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:19VANNils Aman: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:03SJSKevin Labanc: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:07SJSDerrick Pouliot: Interference2 min
- P2 17:15SJSNikolai Knyzhov: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:06SJSJacob Peterson: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:05VANConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Agozzino – Barabanov10:16
xG 0.31–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Agozzino – Hertl – Barabanov2:48
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Kaut5:33
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Zetterlund – Peterson – Sturm8:41
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson13:58
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Simek – Knyzhov9:33
xG 0.34–0.19 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Ferraro11:00
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser10:23
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Joshua – Podkolzin – Aman2:13
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Beauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko10:31
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Joshua – Garland – Aman7:16
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Hughes3:34
xG 0.15–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes5:49
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Burroughs3:35
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).