Sat, Mar 25, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 15 | 011 | 011 | 127 |
| BOS | 110 | 111 | 013 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:46BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 9:30TBLVictor HedmanSHAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 17:32BOSGarnet HathawayGWGAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Tomas Nosek · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:09BOSGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:09TBLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:09TBLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:09BOSJakub Lauko: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:09TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:19TBLTanner Jeannot: Interference2 min
- P1 5:33TBLPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 8:19TBLTanner Jeannot: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 11:51BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:38BOSGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:49BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:40BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:12TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:21BOSJake DeBrusk: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:36TBLBrandon Hagel: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel6:45
xG 0.46–0.24 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Bellemare – Jeannot3:57
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Maroon – Paul – Colton5:46
xG 0.07–0.18 (26%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli3:12
xG 0.08–0.21 (28%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Perbix9:56
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Cole – Cernak8:12
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev9:28
xG 0.31–0.74 (29%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Nosek – Lauko5:17
xG 0.51–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha9:12
xG 0.48–0.13 (78%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Coyle – Bertuzzi – Frederic6:47
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk6:35
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy9:43
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Carlo10:03
xG 0.54–0.15 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Orlov – Clifton10:02
xG 0.30–0.07 (80%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).