Mon, Mar 27, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 116 | 113 | 234 |
| OTT | 28 | 19 | 210 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:02OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 18:55OTTDerick BrassardPPAssists: Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P2 5:58FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Sam Reinhart, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 19:22OTTAlex DeBrincatPPGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 9:15FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Eetu Luostarinen · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 17:37OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Travis Hamonic, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 18:30OTTShane PintoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:41FLAMarc Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:36OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P1 16:57FLAJosh Mahura: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:33OTTTim Stützle: Interference2 min
- P2 6:55OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:48FLAEetu Luostarinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:53OTTShane Pinto: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:54FLAAnton Lundell: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Reinhart – Lomberg8:16
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Lundell9:10
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk2:11
xG 0.17–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Duclair – Barkov – Luostarinen9:56
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Montour14:56
xG 0.69–0.24 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling13:36
xG 0.67–0.59 (53%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Gudas – Mahura8:14
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Brassard – Joseph – Gambrell4:08
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto10:15
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
- Watson – Brown – Kastelic5:36
xG 0.01–0.12 (9%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle10:24
xG 0.14–0.61 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Chabot12:28
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub13:09
xG 0.04–0.43 (8%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Holden – Brannstrom11:23
xG 0.14–0.64 (17%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).