Tue, Mar 28, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 26 | 27 | 421 |
| CAR | 08 | 09 | 014 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:58TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 14:23TBLBrayden PointAssists: Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 12:17TBLBrayden PointAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 15:39TBLAlex KillornENAssists: Brayden Point, Erik Cernak · Snap, 0.73 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:45CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:29TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:02TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:02CARSebastian Aho: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:02TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Paul – Colton – Hagel9:57
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Bellemare – Jeannot8:34
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Maroon – Cirelli9:23
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point13:39
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh2:37
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev15:59
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Fleury – Cernak11:03
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Aho – Necas8:34
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook4:07
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Kotkaniemi – Drury3:16
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Noesen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis8:34
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin13:36
xG 0.73–0.45 (61%)attempts 16–16goals 0–2
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield13:12
xG 0.40–0.18 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce17:03
xG 0.85–0.78 (52%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).