Tue, Mar 28, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Detroit Red Wings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 314 | 116 | 439 |
| DET | 310 | 04 | 411 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:03DETJonatan BerggrenPPAssists: Austin Czarnik, Joseph Veleno · Slap, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 11:37DETAndrew CoppAssists: Moritz Seider, Pius Suter · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 16:07DETDominik KubalikAssists: Gustav Lindstrom, Jordan Oesterle · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 4:40PITJason ZuckerAssists: Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 7:46PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell · Deflected, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 8:41PITJeff CarterPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 4:05DETDavid PerronAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 5:26PITJosh ArchibaldAssists: Drew O'Connor, Kris Letang · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 16:20DETDavid PerronPPGWGAssists: Moritz Seider, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 17:05DETDavid PerronAssists: Dylan Larkin, Jordan Oesterle · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–6
- P3 19:23DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:48PITMark Friedman: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:03PITMark Friedman: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:49DETAustin Czarnik: Holding2 min
- P2 6:44DETGustav Lindstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:21DETJake Walman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:41DETDavid Perron: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 11:16DET: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P2 16:16DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:07DETDominik Kubalik: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:12PITBryan Rust: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Archibald – O'Connor3:59
xG 0.39–0.10 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Granlund2:24
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Archibald – Poehling – O'Connor2:15
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell7:12
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Joseph11:51
xG 1.01–0.72 (58%)attempts 15–18goals 1–2
- Petry – Dumoulin4:39
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin11:04
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLuff – Veleno – Hirose6:43
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Copp – Suter – Raymond10:06
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Larkin10:28
xG 0.74–0.77 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 3–1
- Erne – Czarnik – Berggren6:00
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider16:02
xG 0.80–0.54 (59%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Hagg – Lindstrom9:03
xG 0.37–0.18 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Oesterle – Lindstrom3:41
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 1–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).