Wed, Mar 29, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 011 | 110 | 11 | 329 |
| TOR | 014 | 115 | 110 | 01 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00FLAAnton LundellAssists: Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 3:13TORZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: TJ Brodie, Wayne Simmonds · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 6:40TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 19:00FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 1:41FLABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:54TORWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:54FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:50FLAJosh Mahura: Interference2 min
- P1 17:44TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:20FLARyan Lomberg: Interference2 min
- P2 11:33FLABrandon Montour: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 11:37TORAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:40FLACarter Verhaeghe: Holding2 min
- P2 19:53FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P3 12:15TORMitch Marner: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:40TORMark Giordano: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Reinhart – Lomberg8:31
xG 0.81–0.13 (86%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Luostarinen – Lundell8:08
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Cousins – White – Smith2:06
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov9:30
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura9:09
xG 0.59–0.17 (77%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling2:33
xG 0.10–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling2:06
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Marner – Matthews9:33
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Aston-Reese – Kampf4:06
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:02
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Lafferty – Bunting – Kampf4:21
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Liljegren3:17
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Rielly7:22
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Brodie – McCabe13:19
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).