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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 29, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Florida Panthers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.

TOR winsFLA wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:22Shot by Forsling, saved by Samsonov
  3. P1 1:00Goal by Lundell (Luostarinen)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, McCabe, Kerfoot, Nylander · FLA Staal, Montour, Tkachuk, Luostarinen, Lundell

  4. P1 1:26Shot by Staal, saved by Samsonov
  5. P1 1:54Simmonds: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Simmonds, Holl, Rielly, Aston-Reese, Kampf · FLA Gudas, Cousins, Lomberg, Mahura, Smith

  6. P1 1:54Gudas: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Simmonds, Holl, Rielly, Aston-Reese, Kampf · FLA Gudas, Cousins, Lomberg, Mahura, Smith

  7. P1 3:53Shot by Bunting, saved by Lyon4v4
  8. P1 4:22Shot by Staal, saved by Samsonov
  9. P1 5:35Shot by Matthews, saved by Lyon
  10. P1 7:14Shot by Holl, saved by Lyon
  11. P1 7:21Shot by Matthews, saved by Lyon
  12. P1 8:07Shot by Giordano, saved by Lyon
  13. P1 8:28Shot by Tavares, saved by Lyon
  14. P1 8:50Mahura: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Schenn, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Marner, Matthews · FLA Staal, Gudas, Reinhart, Lomberg, Mahura

  15. P1 10:07Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Lyon5v4
  16. P1 10:54Shot by Lafferty, saved by Lyon
  17. P1 11:08Shot by Bunting, saved by Lyon
  18. P1 11:42Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Lyon
  19. P1 13:16Shot by Lomberg, saved by Samsonov
  20. P1 15:42Shot by Liljegren, saved by Lyon
  21. P1 15:47Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Lyon
  22. P1 16:44Shot by Holl, saved by Lyon
  23. P1 17:44Marner: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Marner, Matthews · FLA Duclair, Verhaeghe, Barkov, Ekblad, Forsling

  24. P1 18:04Shot by Kampf, saved by Lyon4v5
  25. P1 18:37Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Samsonov4v5
  26. P1 19:59Shot by Cousins, saved by Samsonov
  27. P1 0:00Period end
  28. P2 0:00Period start
  29. P2 0:58Shot by Giordano, saved by Lyon
  30. P2 3:13Goal by Aston-Reese (Brodie, Simmonds)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Simmonds, Brodie, Tavares, McCabe, Aston-Reese · FLA Cousins, Ekblad, Forsling, White, Smith

  31. P2 3:57Shot by Rielly, saved by Lyon
  32. P2 4:20Lomberg: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Holl, Rielly, Marner, Matthews · FLA Staal, Staal, Reinhart, Montour, Lomberg

  33. P2 4:27Shot by Marner, saved by Lyon5v4
  34. P2 7:32Shot by Nylander, saved by Lyon
  35. P2 9:39Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Lyon
  36. P2 10:08Shot by Brodie, saved by Lyon
  37. P2 10:24Shot by Ekblad, saved by Samsonov
  38. P2 10:34Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Lyon
  39. P2 11:19Shot by Lomberg, saved by Samsonov
  40. P2 11:30Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Lyon
  41. P2 11:33Montour: Penalty shot slash on breakaway (0 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, McCabe, Lafferty, Aston-Reese, Kampf · FLA Staal, Duclair, Verhaeghe, Barkov, Montour

  42. P2 11:33Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Lyonother
  43. P2 11:37Kerfoot: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Tavares, Holl, Kerfoot, Nylander · FLA Gudas, Tkachuk, Mahura, Luostarinen, Lundell

  44. P2 11:48Shot by Ekblad, saved by Samsonov4v5
  45. P2 12:03Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Samsonov4v5
  46. P2 13:33Shot by Verhaeghe, saved by Samsonov4v5
  47. P2 13:46Shot by Duclair, saved by Samsonov
  48. P2 13:47Shot by Duclair, saved by Samsonov
  49. P2 13:54Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Lyon
  50. P2 14:45Shot by Ekblad, saved by Samsonov
  51. P2 15:19Shot by Brodie, saved by Lyon
  52. P2 15:40Verhaeghe: Holding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, McCabe, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews · FLA Verhaeghe, Barkov, Montour, Forsling, Tkachuk

  53. P2 15:48Shot by Forsling, saved by Samsonov5v4
  54. P2 17:36Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Lyon5v4
  55. P2 17:40Shot by Liljegren, saved by Lyon
  56. P2 19:02Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Lyon
  57. P2 19:50Shot by Forsling, saved by Samsonov
  58. P2 19:53Ekblad: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Holl, Rielly, Bunting, Marner, Kampf · FLA Staal, Verhaeghe, Ekblad, Forsling, Tkachuk

  59. P2 19:59Shot by Reinhart, saved by Samsonov5v4
  60. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  61. P3 0:00Period start
  62. P3 0:10Shot by Nylander, saved by Lyon5v4
  63. P3 1:00Shot by Nylander, saved by Lyon5v4
  64. P3 1:56Shot by Bunting, saved by Lyon
  65. P3 2:36Shot by Lundell, saved by Samsonov
  66. P3 3:18Shot by Nylander, saved by Lyon
  67. P3 3:38Shot by Marner, saved by Lyon
  68. P3 5:12Shot by Giordano, saved by Lyon
  69. P3 6:30Shot by Matthews, saved by Lyon
  70. P3 6:40Goal by Matthews (Marner)+26 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Marner, Matthews · FLA Staal, Duclair, Verhaeghe, Barkov, Montour

  71. P3 7:52Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Samsonov
  72. P3 7:58Shot by Gudas, saved by Samsonov
  73. P3 8:02Shot by Lundell, saved by Samsonov
  74. P3 9:37Shot by Lomberg, saved by Samsonov
  75. P3 11:00Shot by Barkov, saved by Samsonov
  76. P3 12:15Marner: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Holl, Bunting, Marner, Matthews · FLA Staal, Montour, Tkachuk, Luostarinen, Lundell

  77. P3 12:48Shot by Ekblad, saved by Samsonov4v5
  78. P3 14:29Shot by Marner, saved by Lyon
  79. P3 15:54Shot by Duclair, saved by Samsonov
  80. P3 16:18Shot by Giordano, saved by Lyon
  81. P3 17:36Shot by Ekblad, saved by Samsonov5v6
  82. P3 17:40Giordano: Hooking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Jarnkrok, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren · FLA Verhaeghe, Barkov, Ekblad, Reinhart, Montour, Tkachuk

  83. P3 19:00Goal by Reinhart (Ekblad, Montour)4v6+42 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Holl, Marner, Kampf · FLA Verhaeghe, Barkov, Ekblad, Reinhart, Montour, Tkachuk

  84. P3 0:00Period end
  85. OT 0:00Period start
  86. OT 1:21Shot by Matthews, saved by Lyon3v3
  87. OT 1:41Goal by Montour (Barkov, Reinhart)3v3+52 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander · FLA Barkov, Reinhart, Montour

  88. OT 1:41Period end4v4
  89. OT 1:41Final