Sat, Apr 1, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 1, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 03 | 015 | 14 | 122 |
| NSH | 210 | 210 | 215 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46NSHTommy NovakAssists: Luke Evangelista · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:20NSHCody GlassPPGWGAssists: Tommy Novak, Luke Evangelista · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 7:36NSHColton SissonsSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 13:27NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 8:36STLCalle RosenAssists: Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 11:49NSHYakov TreninUnassisted · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 18:06NSHPhilip TomasinoPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Tommy Novak · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:54STLJosh Leivo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:28NSHCole Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:28NSHCole Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:28STLSammy Blais: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:41STLTyler Pitlick: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:13NSHKiefer Sherwood: Holding2 min
- P2 7:18NSHKiefer Sherwood: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:58NSHCal Foote: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:29STLSammy Blais: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:19STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Walker
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestVrana – Brown – Kyrou2:55
xG 0.15–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Vrana3:25
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Blais – Neighbours2:22
xG 0.01–0.03 (28%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Vrana – Kapanen – Blais2:10
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Parayko3:08
xG 0.43–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk3:17
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Scandella – Rosen2:03
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – McCarron – Asplund8:36
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Afanasyev2:34
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Glass – Tomasino – Afanasyev9:10
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista9:28
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGravel – Foote14:48
xG 0.63–0.32 (66%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Barrie – Stastney11:57
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Fabbro15:28
xG 0.79–0.63 (56%)attempts 18–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).