Sun, Apr 2, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 07 | 08 | 122 |
| CAR | 015 | 113 | 17 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:33NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Pierre Engvall, Scott Mayfield · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 9:27CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Stefan Noesen · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 2:31CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:47CARPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
- P3 5:04NYINoah Dobson: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:24CARSebastian Aho: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:31NYISebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall10:58
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Parise – Bailey – Pageau9:52
xG 0.21–0.48 (30%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Lee – Fasching – Horvat9:50
xG 0.22–0.61 (26%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:31
xG 0.08–0.53 (14%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Aho5:11
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pulock – Bolduc3:05
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech4:08
xG 0.08–0.25 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Puljujarvi – Kotkaniemi11:54
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Jarvis9:28
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Martinook – Aho – Necas11:51
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Staal – Fast – Drury9:59
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin16:41
xG 1.11–0.21 (84%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:01
xG 1.11–0.38 (75%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield14:05
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).