Tue, Apr 4, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 1, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 114 | 08 | 018 | 140 |
| FLA | 114 | 014 | 18 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:58BUFDylan CozensPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 15:47FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 0:59FLAMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Brandon Montour, Anton Lundell · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:13BUFAlex Tuch: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:19FLAEetu Luostarinen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:58BUFTyson Jost: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 12:11FLAJosh Mahura: Holding2 min
- P1 14:08BUFTyson Jost: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:18FLAEric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:29BUFMattias Samuelsson: Holding2 min
- P3 19:08FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:47FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson8:38
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs8:07
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Greenway – Jost – Mittelstadt5:26
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka10:45
xG 0.43–0.97 (31%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStillman – Lyubushkin4:26
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dahlin3:05
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Lyubushkin2:14
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – White – Smith4:25
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Reinhart – Lomberg9:54
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Luostarinen – Lundell10:16
xG 0.55–0.67 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov11:00
xG 0.70–1.64 (30%)attempts 12–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura10:32
xG 0.59–0.42 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour14:08
xG 0.71–0.71 (50%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
- Montour – Forsling2:25
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).