Tue, Apr 4, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 014 | 212 | 06 | 00 | 232 |
| NSH | 212 | 05 | 08 | 12 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:50NSHTommy NovakAssists: Luke Evangelista · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:08NSHTommy NovakPPAssists: Cody Glass, Philip Tomasino · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 6:00VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Phil Kessel · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 13:39VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 3:30NSHCody GlassPPGWGAssists: Tommy Novak, Tyson Barrie · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:29VGKBrett Howden: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:50VGKIvan Barbashev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:22NSHRasmus Asplund: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:36NSHRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:24VGKIvan Barbashev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:30NSHKevin Lankinen: Delaying game2 min
- OT 2:53VGKJonathan Marchessault: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Eichel – Dorofeyev6:51
xG 0.64–0.11 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Blueger – Kolesar – Howden9:07
xG 0.40–0.10 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Roy10:53
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Dorofeyev3:44
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo18:03
xG 1.25–0.44 (74%)attempts 25–15goals 1–1
- Hutton – Hague15:45
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud12:39
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGlass – Tomasino – Afanasyev9:39
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Asplund10:24
xG 0.19–0.49 (27%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Jankowski – McCarron – Leonard8:43
xG 0.09–0.44 (16%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista11:03
xG 0.30–0.87 (26%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Stastney14:34
xG 0.76–0.41 (65%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Barrie – Gravel2:02
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gravel – Foote11:52
xG 0.20–0.61 (25%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).