Wed, Apr 5, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 217 | 06 | 331 |
| NYR | 312 | 19 | 216 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:13NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 7:41NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Filip Chytil, K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 10:21NYRTyler MotteAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Braden Schneider · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P1 10:40TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 7:10TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Alex Killorn, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 7:25NYRTyler MotteGWGAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 11:34TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 11:38NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 13:49NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–6
Penalties (19)
- P1 5:29TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:28NYRAlexis Lafrenière: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:09NYRBen Harpur: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:09TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:09TBLPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:54NYRK'Andre Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:50NYRAdam Fox: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:34TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:13TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:13NYRVincent Trocheck: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:25TBLRoss Colton: Instigator2 min
- P2 19:25NYRBraden Schneider: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:25TBLRoss Colton: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:25TBLRoss Colton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:41TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00NYRBen Harpur: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Chytil
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Colton – Hagel5:53
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point14:52
xG 0.90–0.81 (52%)attempts 20–14goals 0–2
- Perry – Bellemare – Jeannot5:29
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Killorn – Maroon – Cirelli4:09
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak2:10
xG 0.51–0.01 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Cernak11:56
xG 0.81–0.58 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev15:14
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Vesey – Motte6:45
xG 0.70–0.16 (81%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vesey7:02
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière9:59
xG 0.34–0.63 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Trocheck – Panarin10:38
xG 0.14–1.22 (10%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Schneider7:55
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Trouba – Miller2:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Fox2:18
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).