Thu, Apr 6, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 7, Detroit Red Wings 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 316 | 17 | 210 | 03 | 2 | 736 |
| DET | 28 | 214 | 28 | 02 | 1 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Dylan Cozens, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:38DETAustin CzarnikAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Jake Walman · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 15:05DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 17:10BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Alex Tuch, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 19:08BUFDylan CozensPPAssists: Peyton Krebs, Owen Power · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 1:33BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Kyle Okposo, Owen Power · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–2
- P2 16:04DETAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–3
- P2 16:52DETSimon EdvinssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–4
- P3 3:20BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Henri Jokiharju · Snap, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 4:32BUFDylan CozensAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.11 xG6–4
- P3 8:02DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Matt Luff · Backhand, 0.20 xG6–5
- P3 19:00DETDavid PerronAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Slap, 0.08 xG6–6
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. DET Lucas Raymond scored
- 3. BUF Jack Quinn scored
- 4. DET David Perron stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch scored
- 6. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:00DETDylan Larkin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 7:02DETJake Walman: Holding2 min
- P1 14:03BUFJJ Peterka: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:10BUFJeff Skinner: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:10DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:10DETJake Walman: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:10DETJake Walman: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:11BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:00BUFHenri Jokiharju: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Thompson – Cozens10:19
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:56
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt11:07
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Jost – Quinn – Peterka7:45
xG 0.23–0.60 (28%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power14:19
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 4–1
- Stillman – Lyubushkin9:20
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Samuelsson – Dahlin18:55
xG 0.55–0.86 (39%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCzarnik – Luff – Berggren6:19
xG 0.76–0.13 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Copp – Suter – Raymond10:07
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond2:25
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Erne – Veleno8:00
xG 0.08–0.39 (18%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Edvinsson12:19
xG 1.08–0.70 (61%)attempts 16–8goals 3–3
- Maatta – Oesterle14:33
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider16:17
xG 0.24–0.57 (30%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).