Sat, Apr 8, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Anaheim Ducks 4, Arizona Coyotes 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 19 | 28 | 03 | 429 |
| ARI | 110 | 28 | 118 | 13 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:12ARIChristian FischerAssists: J.J. Moser, Jack McBain · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 14:21ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Ryan Strome, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:33ARILawson CrousePPAssists: Travis Boyd, Victor Soderstrom · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 9:06ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, J.J. Moser · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 12:01ANARyan StromeAssists: Max Jones, Derek Grant · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 5:46ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Ryan Strome, Trevor Zegras · Snap, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 18:06ANAMax JonesAssists: Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 19:25ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 4:00ARIBarrett HaytonGWGAssists: Matias Maccelli, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:36ARIJack McBain: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:19ARIVictor Soderstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:31ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:52ARIMilos Kelemen: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:24ANASimon Benoit: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:51ARIConnor Mackey: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:51ANARyan Strome: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:40ARILawson Crouse: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:20ANADerek Grant: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:20ARIPatrik Nemeth: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:20ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:02ANARyan Strome: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Nesterenko – McTavish2:50
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Lundeström – Nesterenko6:39
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – McTavish3:34
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Megna – Jones – Lundeström2:00
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – White10:17
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Fowler – Benoit10:20
xG 0.50–0.45 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Fowler – White2:08
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Dauphin – Kelemen7:49
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller12:13
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Crouse – Hayton – Maccelli8:08
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Fischer – McBain8:47
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Moser11:41
xG 1.14–0.54 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Välimäki – Mackey11:14
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Brown – Soderstrom12:13
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).