Thu, Apr 13, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 28 | 04 | 220 |
| COL | 19 | 18 | 28 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:33COLDenis MalginAssists: Lars Eller, Alex Newhook · Bat, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 2:15WPGAxel Jonsson-FjallbyAssists: Neal Pionk, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 14:59WPGKevin StenlundSHAssists: Morgan Barron · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 16:11COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 3:01COLEvan RodriguesGWGAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 18:31COLArtturi LehkonenENAssists: Bowen Byram, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:03COLMatt Nieto: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:47COLDevon Toews: Interference2 min
- P2 8:22WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
- P2 14:44WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:57WPGDylan Samberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:33COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:08WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton8:52
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Connor – Kuhlman11:06
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson4:23
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Toninato – Maenalanen – Barron5:16
xG 0.12–0.48 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Capobianco – Stanley12:23
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk16:25
xG 0.57–0.58 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- DeMelo – Samberg13:37
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestEller – Malgin – Newhook6:25
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Compher – Lehkonen – Rodrigues5:16
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Compher – Lehkonen – Nichushkin2:26
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues2:51
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Byram4:02
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Byram2:03
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard3:51
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).