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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 11, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Montréal Canadiens 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 6 (SO)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MTL1111239020524
TOR010316213031642

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:01MTLJake EvansUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 1:10MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Kirby Dach · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P2 7:46TORNoah GregorAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 14:51TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P2 19:15TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: John Klingberg, John Tavares · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 4:25MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
  7. P3 5:47MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Arber Xhekaj, Kirby Dach · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–3
  8. P3 11:55MTLJesse YlonenAssists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–3
  9. P3 15:28TORAuston MatthewsAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
  10. P3 18:53TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. TOR William Nylander stopped
  2. 2. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
  3. 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
  4. 4. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
  5. 5. TOR Mitch Marner scored
  6. 6. MTL Kirby Dach stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 4:58TORCalle Jarnkrok: Holding2 min
  2. P1 10:20MTLArber Xhekaj: Instigator2 min
  3. P1 10:20TORRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 10:20MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 10:20MTLArber Xhekaj: Instigator misconduct10 min
  6. P2 2:51MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 5:18TORDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 13:57MTLAlex Newhook: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P2 18:38MTLJake Evans: Holding2 min · PPG
  10. P3 4:13TORTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 4:13MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 4:13TORTyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
  13. OT 3:13TORMatthew Knies: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
46% to win54% to win
← MTL attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Matthews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLTOR
24Shots on goal42
2.1Expected goals4.1
51Shot attempts71
28Faceoffs won26
4Power plays4
25Penalty minutes15
43Hits29
15Blocked shots13
10Giveaways13
8Takeaways10

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. bestDach – Newhook – Slafkovský11:07

    xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0

  2. Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield10:50

    xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0

  3. Evans – Ylonen – Harvey-Pinard6:12

    xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 2–10goals 2–0

  4. Gallagher – Pearson – Monahan8:29

    xG 0.07–0.56 (11%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHarris – Xhekaj8:28

    xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0

  2. Kovacevic – Guhle11:20

    xG 0.44–0.18 (70%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0

  3. Matheson – Harris2:00

    xG 0.01–0.05 (12%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestBertuzzi – Marner – Matthews10:20

    xG 0.78–0.24 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0

  2. Tavares – Domi – Nylander8:39

    xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2

  3. Jarnkrok – Gregor – Kampf2:03

    xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0

  4. Reaves – Gregor – Kampf6:28

    xG 0.17–0.20 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestGiordano – Liljegren10:10

    xG 0.87–0.16 (84%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0

  2. Brodie – Rielly13:47

    xG 0.73–0.45 (62%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1

  3. Klingberg – McCabe14:26

    xG 0.33–0.63 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 4.1 xGMTL 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #11 of 1312 this seasonSwing 3.08 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 2% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +48 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).