Sat, Oct 14, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Calgary Flames 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 015 | 111 | 110 | 236 |
| PIT | 011 | 05 | 513 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:22CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 0:18PITBryan RustAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 0:41PITReilly SmithAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 5:50PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 14:14PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 16:05CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 19:38PITBryan RustENAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:40CGYNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:05CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:02PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:52CGYDillon Dube: Holding2 min
- P1 19:02PITRyan Graves: Holding2 min
- P2 13:52PITLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:23PITRyan Graves: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Dube – Ruzicka10:19
xG 0.49–0.13 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Greer – Sharangovich – Duehr9:56
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane2:04
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Mangiapane8:40
xG 0.43–0.50 (46%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson13:14
xG 1.09–0.34 (76%)attempts 25–6goals 1–1
- Weegar – Zadorov17:07
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
- Tanev – Gilbert9:00
xG 0.06–0.20 (21%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Harkins – O'Connor7:57
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari9:14
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel11:08
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell9:55
xG 0.47–0.75 (39%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson14:04
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Joseph2:18
xG 0.12–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Graves13:43
xG 0.70–0.83 (46%)attempts 16–24goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).