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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 14, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Calgary Flames 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.

PIT winsCGY wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:11Shot by Huberdeau, saved by Nedeljkovic
  3. P1 0:13Shot by Lindholm, saved by Nedeljkovic
  4. P1 0:46Shot by Weegar, saved by Nedeljkovic
  5. P1 1:00Shot by Rakell, saved by Markstrom
  6. P1 2:21Shot by Greer, saved by Nedeljkovic
  7. P1 3:01Shot by Zadorov, saved by Nedeljkovic
  8. P1 3:58Shot by Backlund, saved by Nedeljkovic
  9. P1 5:18Shot by Eller, saved by Markstrom
  10. P1 5:24Shot by Harkins, saved by Markstrom
  11. P1 5:41Shot by Eller, saved by Markstrom
  12. P1 6:41Shot by Greer, saved by Nedeljkovic
  13. P1 6:57Shot by Dube, saved by Nedeljkovic
  14. P1 7:44Shot by Letang, saved by Markstrom
  15. P1 8:55Shot by Mangiapane, saved by Nedeljkovic
  16. P1 9:07Shot by Huberdeau, saved by Nedeljkovic
  17. P1 10:40Zadorov: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Karlsson, Smith, Rakell, Pettersson · CGY Kadri, Weegar, Zadorov, Dube, Ruzicka

  18. P1 11:28Shot by Crosby, saved by Markstrom5v4
  19. P1 11:31Shot by Guentzel, saved by Markstrom5v4
  20. P1 12:03Shot by Malkin, saved by Markstrom5v4
  21. P1 12:05Coleman: Hooking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: PIT Carter, Malkin, Letang, Rust, Harkins · CGY Coleman, Hanifin, Andersson, Sharangovich

  22. P1 12:13Shot by Malkin, saved by Markstrom5v3
  23. P1 13:02Crosby: Hooking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Rakell, Guentzel · CGY Backlund, Tanev, Zadorov, Hanifin

  24. P1 13:04Shot by Zadorov, saved by Nedeljkovic4v4
  25. P1 13:52Dube: Holding (2 min)5v4

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Eller, Karlsson, Smith · CGY Kadri, Tanev, Huberdeau, Hanifin

  26. P1 14:23Shot by Tanev, saved by Nedeljkovic4v4
  27. P1 14:57Shot by Huberdeau, saved by Nedeljkovic4v4
  28. P1 15:26Shot by Crosby, saved by Markstrom5v4
  29. P1 15:30Shot by Crosby, saved by Markstrom5v4
  30. P1 16:18Shot by Kadri, saved by Nedeljkovic
  31. P1 18:49Shot by Ruzicka, saved by Nedeljkovic
  32. P1 19:02Graves: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Rust, Guentzel, Graves · CGY Kadri, Hanifin, Andersson, Dube, Ruzicka

  33. P1 0:00Period end4v5
  34. P2 0:00Period start
  35. P2 3:08Shot by Karlsson, saved by Markstrom
  36. P2 3:58Shot by Weegar, saved by Nedeljkovic
  37. P2 4:29Shot by Coleman, saved by Nedeljkovic
  38. P2 5:53Shot by Duehr, saved by Nedeljkovic
  39. P2 7:56Shot by Joseph, saved by Markstrom
  40. P2 9:32Shot by Karlsson, saved by Markstrom
  41. P2 11:57Shot by Coleman, saved by Nedeljkovic
  42. P2 13:52Eller: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Eller, Karlsson, Graves, Harkins, O'Connor · CGY Kadri, Tanev, Gilbert, Dube, Ruzicka

  43. P2 13:55Shot by Andersson, saved by Nedeljkovic4v5
  44. P2 14:04Shot by Kadri, saved by Nedeljkovic4v5
  45. P2 16:24Shot by Zadorov, saved by Nedeljkovic
  46. P2 17:23Graves: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Eller, Graves, Acciari, O'Connor · CGY Kadri, Huberdeau, Lindholm, Hanifin, Andersson

  47. P2 18:02Shot by Eller, saved by Markstrom4v5
  48. P2 18:16Shot by Andersson, saved by Nedeljkovic4v5
  49. P2 18:22Goal by Coronato (Lindholm, Andersson)4v5+22 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Eller, Karlsson, Rust, Ruhwedel · CGY Kadri, Huberdeau, Lindholm, Andersson, Coronato

  50. P2 18:43Shot by Coleman, saved by Nedeljkovic
  51. P2 19:07Shot by Karlsson, saved by Markstrom
  52. P2 19:59Shot by Tanev, saved by Nedeljkovic
  53. P2 0:00Period end
  54. P3 0:00Period start
  55. P3 0:18Goal by Rust (Letang, Guentzel)+25 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Rust, Guentzel, Graves · CGY Huberdeau, Lindholm, Mangiapane, Hanifin, Andersson

  56. P3 0:26Shot by Malkin, saved by Markstrom
  57. P3 0:41Goal by Smith (Malkin, Graves)+25 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Smith, Rakell, Graves · CGY Backlund, Coleman, Weegar, Zadorov, Coronato

  58. P3 1:21Shot by Eller, saved by Markstrom
  59. P3 2:05Shot by Andersson, saved by Nedeljkovic
  60. P3 5:05Shot by Malkin, saved by Markstrom
  61. P3 5:50Goal by Guentzel (Letang, Crosby)+13 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Rust, Guentzel, Graves · CGY Huberdeau, Lindholm, Zadorov, Hanifin, Coronato

  62. P3 6:04Shot by Graves, saved by Markstrom
  63. P3 6:43Shot by Huberdeau, saved by Nedeljkovic
  64. P3 9:21Shot by Lindholm, saved by Nedeljkovic
  65. P3 10:26Shot by Graves, saved by Markstrom
  66. P3 11:18Shot by Nieto, saved by Markstrom
  67. P3 12:05Shot by Sharangovich, saved by Nedeljkovic
  68. P3 13:11Shot by Guentzel, saved by Markstrom
  69. P3 13:19Shot by Rust, saved by Markstrom
  70. P3 14:14Goal by Malkin (Smith)+2 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Karlsson, Smith, Rakell, Pettersson · CGY Backlund, Tanev, Coleman, Hanifin, Coronato

  71. P3 15:13Shot by Greer, saved by Nedeljkovic
  72. P3 15:21Shot by Sharangovich, saved by Nedeljkovic
  73. P3 16:05Goal by Huberdeau (Mangiapane, Hanifin)+1 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Rust, Guentzel, Graves · CGY Huberdeau, Lindholm, Mangiapane, Hanifin, Andersson

  74. P3 16:20Shot by Ruzicka, saved by Nedeljkovic
  75. P3 18:08Shot by Lindholm, saved by Nedeljkovic5v6
  76. P3 18:21Shot by Andersson, saved by Nedeljkovic5v6
  77. P3 19:38Goal by Rust (Guentzel)5v60 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Rust, Guentzel, Graves · CGY Kadri, Huberdeau, Lindholm, Hanifin, Andersson, Coronato

  78. P3 0:00Period end
  79. P3 0:00Final