Sat, Oct 14, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 29 | 110 | 432 |
| TOR | 312 | 19 | 312 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:54TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 12:35TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 19:37TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 3:35TORTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.30 xG1–4
- P2 4:09MINMatt BoldyAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Calen Addison · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P2 9:51MINMarco RossiAssists: Marcus Foligno, Brock Faber · Bat, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 9:54TORCalle JarnkrokGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.35 xG3–5
- P3 10:25TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrap-around, 0.16 xG3–6
- P3 12:14TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Klingberg, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–7
- P3 17:32MINBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Connor Dewar, Jake Middleton · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:49TORTyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:21MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 8:21TORRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:00TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:00MINConnor Dewar: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:23MINJon Merrill: Interference2 min
- P2 1:51MINAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:43MINAlex Goligoski: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:21
xG 0.77–0.16 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Rossi6:02
xG 0.84–0.40 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:54
xG 0.55–0.61 (48%)attempts 18–13goals 1–2
- Maroon – Duhaime – Dewar7:54
xG 0.01–0.45 (2%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber17:21
xG 1.23–0.32 (79%)attempts 23–13goals 2–0
- Merrill – Addison9:00
xG 1.01–0.80 (56%)attempts 19–7goals 1–2
- Middleton – Faber2:15
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Knies – Minten6:12
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Marner – Matthews13:40
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- Tavares – Domi – Nylander7:18
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Nylander3:53
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly16:21
xG 0.95–0.09 (91%)attempts 12–11goals 3–0
- Giordano – Liljegren13:20
xG 0.48–0.73 (40%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Klingberg – McCabe15:10
xG 0.98–1.52 (39%)attempts 16–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).