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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 14, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Minnesota Wild 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.

TOR winsMIN wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:30Shot by Domi, saved by Gustavsson
  3. P1 1:44Shot by Knies, saved by Gustavsson
  4. P1 1:47Shot by Knies, saved by Gustavsson
  5. P1 3:28Shot by Faber, saved by Samsonov
  6. P1 4:11Shot by Eriksson Ek, saved by Samsonov
  7. P1 4:11Shot by Faber, saved by Samsonov
  8. P1 4:42Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Gustavsson
  9. P1 4:49Bertuzzi: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Bertuzzi, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren · MIN Foligno, Brodin, Gaudreau, Rossi, Faber

  10. P1 4:57Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Samsonov4v5
  11. P1 5:44Shot by Boldy, saved by Samsonov4v5
  12. P1 6:24Shot by Marner, saved by Gustavsson4v5
  13. P1 6:55Shot by Johansson, saved by Samsonov
  14. P1 7:13Shot by Rossi, saved by Samsonov
  15. P1 8:17Shot by Gaudreau, saved by Samsonov
  16. P1 8:21Foligno: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Brodie, Rielly, Gregor, Minten · MIN Foligno, Merrill, Gaudreau, Addison, Rossi

  17. P1 8:21Reaves: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Brodie, Rielly, Gregor, Minten · MIN Foligno, Merrill, Gaudreau, Addison, Rossi

  18. P1 9:32Goal by Hartman (Kaprizov, Brodin)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Klingberg, McCabe, Bertuzzi, Marner, Matthews · MIN Zuccarello, Brodin, Hartman, Kaprizov, Faber

  19. P1 10:54Goal by Matthews (Marner)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Marner, Matthews · MIN Goligoski, Zuccarello, Hartman, Middleton, Kaprizov

  20. P1 10:59Shot by Zuccarello, saved by Samsonov
  21. P1 11:16Shot by Brodie, saved by Gustavsson
  22. P1 11:58Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Samsonov
  23. P1 12:00Domi: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Klingberg, McCabe, Domi, Marner · MIN Maroon, Merrill, Kaprizov, Addison, Dewar

  24. P1 12:00Dewar: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Klingberg, McCabe, Domi, Marner · MIN Maroon, Merrill, Kaprizov, Addison, Dewar

  25. P1 12:21Shot by Tavares, saved by Gustavsson4v4
  26. P1 12:23Merrill: Interference (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Tavares, Nylander, Marner · MIN Johansson, Merrill, Eriksson Ek, Addison

  27. P1 12:35Goal by Matthews (Nylander)4v3+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · MIN Brodin, Eriksson Ek, Faber

  28. P1 15:56Shot by Nylander, saved by Gustavsson
  29. P1 16:42Shot by Duhaime, saved by Samsonov
  30. P1 18:09Shot by Brodie, saved by Gustavsson
  31. P1 18:53Shot by Rossi, saved by Samsonov
  32. P1 19:37Goal by Nylander (Tavares, Domi)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Klingberg, McCabe, Bertuzzi, Nylander · MIN Goligoski, Johansson, Middleton, Eriksson Ek, Boldy

  33. P1 0:00Period end
  34. P2 0:00Period start
  35. P2 1:37Shot by McCabe, saved by Gustavsson
  36. P2 1:51Goligoski: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Klingberg, McCabe, Domi, Nylander · MIN Goligoski, Zuccarello, Hartman, Middleton, Kaprizov

  37. P2 3:35Goal by Bertuzzi (Jarnkrok, Rielly)5v4+8 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Domi, Liljegren · MIN Foligno, Merrill, Hartman, Middleton

  38. P2 4:09Goal by Boldy (Zuccarello, Addison)+7 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Brodie, McCabe, Gregor, Kampf · MIN Zuccarello, Merrill, Kaprizov, Addison, Boldy

  39. P2 4:52Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Gustavsson
  40. P2 6:13Shot by Boldy, saved by Samsonov
  41. P2 7:42Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Gustavsson
  42. P2 9:24Shot by Middleton, saved by Samsonov
  43. P2 9:30Shot by Addison, saved by Samsonov
  44. P2 9:50Shot by Foligno, saved by Samsonov
  45. P2 9:51Goal by Rossi (Foligno, Faber)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Brodie, Tavares, Domi, Nylander · MIN Foligno, Brodin, Gaudreau, Rossi, Faber

  46. P2 11:05Shot by Marner, saved by Gustavsson
  47. P2 14:17Shot by Boldy, saved by Samsonov
  48. P2 15:21Shot by Gregor, saved by Gustavsson
  49. P2 17:48Shot by Hartman, saved by Samsonov
  50. P2 18:25Shot by Hartman, saved by Samsonov
  51. P2 19:18Shot by Nylander, saved by Gustavsson
  52. P2 19:21Shot by Nylander, saved by Gustavsson
  53. P2 19:46Shot by Nylander, saved by Gustavsson
  54. P2 0:00Period end
  55. P3 0:00Period start
  56. P3 0:27Shot by Brodin, saved by Samsonov
  57. P3 1:47Shot by Boldy, saved by Samsonov
  58. P3 2:18Shot by Gaudreau, saved by Samsonov
  59. P3 2:27Shot by Rossi, saved by Samsonov
  60. P3 4:12Shot by Hartman, saved by Samsonov
  61. P3 4:25Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Gustavsson
  62. P3 4:26Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Gustavsson
  63. P3 6:43Goligoski: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Marner, Gregor, Liljegren, Kampf · MIN Goligoski, Johansson, Merrill, Boldy, Rossi

  64. P3 8:18Shot by Matthews, saved by Gustavsson5v4
  65. P3 8:34Shot by Tavares, saved by Gustavsson5v4
  66. P3 9:54Goal by Jarnkrok (Rielly, Brodie)+12 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Minten · MIN Johansson, Merrill, Kaprizov, Addison, Rossi

  67. P3 10:25Goal by Matthews (Marner)+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Marner, Matthews · MIN Goligoski, Zuccarello, Middleton, Kaprizov, Rossi

  68. P3 11:05Shot by Eriksson Ek, saved by Samsonov
  69. P3 11:55Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Gustavsson
  70. P3 12:14Goal by Nylander (Klingberg, Tavares)+1 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Jarnkrok, Klingberg, Rielly, Nylander · MIN Zuccarello, Merrill, Hartman, Kaprizov, Addison

  71. P3 13:12Shot by Rossi, saved by Samsonov
  72. P3 13:50Shot by Matthews, saved by Gustavsson
  73. P3 17:23Shot by Middleton, saved by Samsonov
  74. P3 17:32Goal by Duhaime (Dewar, Middleton)0 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Jarnkrok, Klingberg, McCabe, Nylander · MIN Johansson, Middleton, Duhaime, Dewar, Faber

  75. P3 18:45Shot by Gaudreau, saved by Samsonov
  76. P3 19:18Shot by Rielly, saved by Gustavsson
  77. P3 19:19Shot by Gregor, saved by Gustavsson
  78. P3 19:35Shot by Gregor, saved by Gustavsson
  79. P3 0:00Period end
  80. P3 0:00Final