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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 16, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York

Arizona Coyotes 1, New York Rangers 2

Away

Arizona Coyotes

1

Final

Home

New York Rangers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.

NYR winsARI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ARI0101908127
NYR11304111228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:11NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Kaapo Kakko · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:00ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P3 8:26NYRVincent TrocheckPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (22)
  1. P1 14:27NYRVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
  2. P1 16:01ARIMatias Maccelli: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 3:24NYRBraden Schneider: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:36NYRK'Andre Miller: Holding2 min
  5. P2 10:40ARITravis Dermott: Holding the stick2 min
  6. P2 18:41NYRRyan Lindgren: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 18:41NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 7:17ARIMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  9. P3 15:12NYRBarclay Goodrow: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
  10. P3 0:00ARIBarrett Hayton: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 0:00ARIMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 0:00ARINick Bjugstad: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 0:00ARISean Durzi: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 0:00NYRMika Zibanejad: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 0:00NYRJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 0:00NYRBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 0:00NYRIgor Shesterkin: Goalie leave crease2 min
  18. P3 0:00ARIMathew Dumba: Misconduct10 min
  19. P3 0:00ARIBarrett Hayton: Misconduct10 min
  20. P3 0:00ARINick Bjugstad: Misconduct10 min
  21. P3 0:00NYRJacob Trouba: Misconduct10 min
  22. P3 0:00NYRBarclay Goodrow: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ARI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
46% to win54% to win
← ARI attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Hayton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ARINYR
27Shots on goal28
3.2Expected goals3.2
53Shot attempts61
26Faceoffs won22
5Power plays3
44Penalty minutes38
20Hits23
14Blocked shots15
4Giveaways11
3Takeaways10

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestBoyd – O'Brien – McBain5:50

    xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0

  2. Zucker – Kerfoot – Cooley9:23

    xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0

  3. Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli8:10

    xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0

  4. Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:17

    xG 0.04–0.32 (11%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestDurzi – Moser9:33

    xG 0.54–0.27 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0

  2. Stecher – Välimäki11:38

    xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0

  3. Dumba – Dermott10:54

    xG 0.41–0.58 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1

New York Rangers

Forward lines

  1. bestWheeler – Trocheck – Cuylle8:54

    xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0

  2. Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko10:38

    xG 0.55–0.05 (92%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0

  3. Panarin – Chytil – Lafrenière11:19

    xG 0.66–0.47 (59%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0

  4. Bonino – Pitlick – Goodrow6:49

    xG 0.05–0.67 (7%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGustafsson – Schneider9:36

    xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0

  2. Fox – Lindgren14:36

    xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0

  3. Gustafsson – Miller2:00

    xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.2 xGARI 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRARI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 36/100 · #866 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.25 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 49% (winner's lowest chance)
ARI 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.

NYR winsARI wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − ARI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).