Wed, Oct 18, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 16 | 09 | 218 | 333 |
| DET | 17 | 312 | 210 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Reilly Smith, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:23DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Austin Czarnik, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 5:21DETBen ChiarotAssists: Dylan Larkin, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 15:42DETAndrew CoppAssists: Jeff Petry, Michael Rasmussen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 17:49DETDavid PerronPPGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–4
- P3 3:37PITErik KarlssonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 13:03PITBryan RustAssists: Erik Karlsson, Marcus Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 18:28DETAndrew CoppENUnassisted · Snap, 0.71 xG3–5
- P3 18:49DETAlex DeBrincatENAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:55DETKlim Kostin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:32PITJansen Harkins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:08DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:08DETDylan Larkin: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:08PITMarcus Pettersson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:46PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:46DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:46PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:32DETJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:17PITKris Letang: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 18:28PITJansen Harkins: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel13:57
xG 0.80–0.05 (94%)attempts 23–5goals 2–0
- Eller – Nieto – O'Connor3:57
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari6:56
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Harkins – O'Connor5:12
xG 0.00–0.15 (3%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Graves2:54
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson17:43
xG 0.93–0.64 (59%)attempts 29–11goals 2–0
- Letang – Karlsson3:11
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFischer – Czarnik – Kostin7:08
xG 0.49–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond11:44
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
- Perron – Sprong – Veleno10:38
xG 0.19–0.47 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Copp – Compher – Rasmussen11:59
xG 0.17–0.72 (20%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot13:57
xG 0.64–0.35 (64%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Maatta – Gostisbehere14:58
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Walman – Seider15:09
xG 0.41–0.88 (32%)attempts 8–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).