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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 18, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Detroit Red Wings 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.

DET winsPIT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:53Goal by Malkin (Smith, Karlsson)+14 pts WP

    On ice: DET Petry, Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond · PIT Malkin, Karlsson, Smith, Rakell, Pettersson

  3. P1 1:02Shot by Pettersson, saved by Husso
  4. P1 1:08Shot by Rakell, saved by Husso
  5. P1 1:22Shot by Rakell, saved by Husso
  6. P1 3:10Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Jarry
  7. P1 3:24Shot by Larkin, saved by Jarry
  8. P1 3:59Shot by Crosby, saved by Husso
  9. P1 5:51Shot by Fischer, saved by Jarry
  10. P1 5:52Shot by Fischer, saved by Jarry
  11. P1 6:40Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Jarry
  12. P1 7:11Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Jarry
  13. P1 9:55Kostin: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Gostisbehere, Fischer, Czarnik, Kostin · PIT Eller, Ruhwedel, Harkins, Joseph, O'Connor

  14. P1 12:23Goal by DeBrincat (Czarnik, Gostisbehere)+15 pts WP

    On ice: DET Maatta, Gostisbehere, Czarnik, DeBrincat, Raymond · PIT Eller, Nieto, Ruhwedel, Acciari, Joseph

  15. P1 17:52Shot by Carter, saved by Husso
  16. P1 0:00Period end
  17. P2 0:00Period start
  18. P2 3:50Shot by Graves, saved by Husso
  19. P2 5:21Goal by Chiarot (Larkin, Petry)+20 pts WP

    On ice: DET Petry, Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond · PIT Malkin, Smith, Rakell, Ruhwedel, Joseph

  20. P2 6:37Shot by Petry, saved by Jarry
  21. P2 8:28Shot by Seider, saved by Jarry
  22. P2 8:37Shot by Rakell, saved by Husso
  23. P2 9:43Shot by Graves, saved by Husso
  24. P2 10:33Shot by O'Connor, saved by Husso
  25. P2 11:13Shot by Joseph, saved by Husso
  26. P2 11:24Shot by Czarnik, saved by Jarry
  27. P2 13:25Shot by Maatta, saved by Jarry
  28. P2 14:12Shot by Fischer, saved by Jarry
  29. P2 15:29Shot by Chiarot, saved by Jarry
  30. P2 15:42Goal by Copp (Petry, Rasmussen)+14 pts WP

    On ice: DET Petry, Chiarot, Copp, Compher, Rasmussen · PIT Malkin, Letang, Smith, Rakell, Joseph

  31. P2 16:05Shot by Crosby, saved by Husso
  32. P2 16:10Shot by Graves, saved by Husso
  33. P2 17:32Harkins: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Perron, Maatta, Gostisbehere, Sprong, Veleno · PIT Carter, Ruhwedel, Pettersson, Harkins, Acciari

  34. P2 17:36Shot by Larkin, saved by Jarry5v4
  35. P2 17:47Shot by Larkin, saved by Jarry5v4
  36. P2 17:49Goal by Perron (Larkin, DeBrincat)5v4+6 pts WP

    On ice: DET Perron, Gostisbehere, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider · PIT Nieto, Ruhwedel, Graves, Acciari

  37. P2 18:39Shot by Larkin, saved by Jarry
  38. P2 19:08Larkin: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Larkin, Walman, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond · PIT Carter, Crosby, Rust, Guentzel, Pettersson

  39. P2 19:08Larkin: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: DET Larkin, Walman, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond · PIT Carter, Crosby, Rust, Guentzel, Pettersson

  40. P2 19:08Pettersson: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: DET Larkin, Walman, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond · PIT Carter, Crosby, Rust, Guentzel, Pettersson

  41. P2 19:29Shot by Malkin, saved by Husso4v5
  42. P2 19:44Shot by Guentzel, saved by Husso4v5
  43. P2 19:46Malkin: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: DET Copp, Compher, Walman, Seider · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Rakell, Guentzel

  44. P2 19:46Seider: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: DET Copp, Compher, Walman, Seider · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Rakell, Guentzel

  45. P2 19:46Malkin: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: DET Copp, Compher, Walman, Seider · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Rakell, Guentzel

  46. P2 0:00Period end4v4
  47. P3 0:00Period start
  48. P3 0:27Shot by Chiarot, saved by Jarry4v4
  49. P3 0:40Shot by Gostisbehere, saved by Jarry4v4
  50. P3 1:32Shot by Rust, saved by Husso5v4
  51. P3 2:00Shot by Walman, saved by Jarry
  52. P3 3:37Goal by Karlsson (Crosby, Graves)+5 pts WP

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Compher, Walman, Rasmussen, Raymond · PIT Crosby, Letang, Karlsson, Rust, Guentzel

  53. P3 3:59Shot by Graves, saved by Husso
  54. P3 4:35Shot by Perron, saved by Jarry
  55. P3 5:29Shot by Harkins, saved by Husso
  56. P3 5:32Petry: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Petry, Chiarot, Copp, Fischer, Rasmussen · PIT Carter, Karlsson, Pettersson, Harkins, Acciari

  57. P3 5:33Shot by Malkin, saved by Husso4v5
  58. P3 6:01Shot by Rakell, saved by Husso4v5
  59. P3 6:02Shot by Crosby, saved by Husso4v5
  60. P3 6:04Shot by Karlsson, saved by Husso4v5
  61. P3 7:15Shot by Copp, saved by Jarry4v5
  62. P3 7:17Letang: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway (0 min)4v5

    On ice: DET Copp, Compher, Walman, Seider · PIT Carter, Letang, Smith, Rust, Harkins

  63. P3 7:17Shot by Copp, saved by Jarryother
  64. P3 8:01Shot by Maatta, saved by Jarry
  65. P3 8:08Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Jarry
  66. P3 8:18Shot by Eller, saved by Husso
  67. P3 8:31Shot by Joseph, saved by Husso
  68. P3 9:09Shot by Rakell, saved by Husso
  69. P3 9:25Shot by Rakell, saved by Husso
  70. P3 10:36Shot by Karlsson, saved by Husso
  71. P3 12:02Shot by Carter, saved by Husso
  72. P3 12:07Shot by Joseph, saved by Husso
  73. P3 12:15Shot by Rakell, saved by Husso
  74. P3 13:03Goal by Rust (Karlsson, Pettersson)+11 pts WP

    On ice: DET Larkin, Walman, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond · PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Rust, Guentzel, Pettersson

  75. P3 14:33Shot by Karlsson, saved by Husso
  76. P3 18:28Goal by Copp, unassisted5v6+5 pts WP

    On ice: DET Petry, Chiarot, Copp, Compher, Rasmussen · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Rust, Guentzel, Pettersson

  77. P3 18:28Harkins: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge (2 min)5v6

    On ice: DET Petry, Chiarot, Copp, Compher, Rasmussen · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Rust, Guentzel, Pettersson

  78. P3 18:49Goal by DeBrincat (Larkin)0 pts WP

    On ice: DET Perron, Gostisbehere, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Karlsson, Guentzel

  79. P3 0:00Period end
  80. P3 0:00Final