Thu, Oct 19, 2023·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 114 | 07 | 130 |
| FLA | 29 | 08 | 17 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:08FLAKevin StenlundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:53FLAOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 11:52TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:59FLASam ReinhartENAssists: Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:20TORFraser Minten: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:43FLANick Cousins: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:39TORNoah Gregor: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:11FLASam Reinhart: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:42TORMatthew Knies: Interference2 min
- P2 14:38FLAEvan Rodrigues: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:35TORRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00FLAUvis Balinskis: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:51FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Luostarinen won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Marner – Matthews6:50
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Marner – Matthews5:39
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Kampf4:15
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Minten3:22
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Liljegren11:50
xG 0.69–0.19 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Brodie – Rielly13:20
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Giordano – Klingberg9:38
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues12:41
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Lorentz – Lomberg5:07
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen9:16
xG 0.43–0.65 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Cousins – Sourdif – Lundell7:57
xG 0.05–0.45 (10%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMahura – Balinskis8:50
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling15:16
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola12:51
xG 0.44–0.91 (32%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).