Sat, Oct 21, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Anaheim Ducks 1, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 017 | 17 | 133 |
| ARI | 112 | 110 | 05 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:41ARIJason ZuckerPPAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Matias Maccelli · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 14:01ARIClayton KellerGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 7:47ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 15:09ANARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P1 17:32ANALeo Carlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:19ARIMichael Carcone: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:29ARIJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:29ANAAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:19ANAFrank Vatrano: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:00ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:00ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:22ARIClayton Keller: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:43ANAMason McTavish: Elbowing2 min
- P3 6:06ARILawson Crouse: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min · PPG
- P3 16:44ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:44ARITravis Dermott: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Zegras – Carlsson12:21
xG 0.80–0.22 (79%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason5:43
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Groulx5:16
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish8:35
xG 0.06–0.35 (15%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe10:33
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov11:31
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Fowler – Luneau10:35
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:15
xG 0.63–0.19 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Zucker – Maccelli – Cooley4:47
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Cooley2:23
xG 0.09–0.00 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Carcone3:41
xG 0.01–0.09 (8%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser10:49
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Stecher – Välimäki10:11
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stecher – Moser2:40
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).