Mon, Oct 23, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 14 | 09 | 214 | 327 |
| BUF | 17 | 017 | 013 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56MTLJustin BarronAssists: Arber Xhekaj, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 7:13BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 3:31MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: David Savard, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 16:53MTLTanner PearsonPPAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Newhook · Snap, 0.25 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:05MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:51BUFPeyton Krebs: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:06MTLMichael Pezzetta: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:42MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:47BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:04MTLJustin Barron: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:16MTLSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:57BUFAlex Tuch: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Jost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Pearson – Monahan6:17
xG 0.86–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 2–0
- Anderson – Newhook – Slafkovský9:07
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Evans – Pezzetta – Ylonen6:55
xG 0.08–0.40 (17%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard – Caufield9:35
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarron – Xhekaj13:24
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Savard – Matheson10:45
xG 0.77–0.79 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Harris13:32
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Thompson – Cozens8:55
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Krebs – Peterka7:38
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost6:23
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt8:36
xG 0.45–0.70 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power2:44
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin11:54
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Johnson – Clifton8:26
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).