Tue, Oct 24, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 15 | 39 | 03 | 417 |
| WSH | 017 | 113 | 08 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:53TORMorgan RiellyPPAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:41TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Tyler Bertuzzi · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 6:29TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.21 xG3–0
- P2 15:07TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.14 xG4–0
- P2 19:49WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:24TORDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:58WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:57WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 18:23TORPontus Holmberg: Holding2 min
- P2 2:45TORMark Giordano: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 14:10WSHTom Wilson: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P2 18:16TORTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander11:11
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Domi – Kampf – Knies9:33
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Holmberg9:06
xG 0.06–0.44 (12%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews10:25
xG 0.16–0.66 (20%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Klingberg12:44
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McCabe – Liljegren14:08
xG 0.31–0.59 (34%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly16:28
xG 0.48–0.99 (33%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – McMichael10:20
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Milano5:47
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Mantha – Malenstyn – Protas4:31
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Mantha2:21
xG 0.07–0.06 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin11:38
xG 0.77–0.31 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Jensen – Alexeyev7:58
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:29
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).