Tue, Oct 24, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 011 | 013 | 032 |
| TBL | 112 | 16 | 15 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:06TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 17:51TBLAlex Barré-BouletAssists: Darren Raddysh, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 17:04TBLNick PaulAssists: Brandon Hagel, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 11:18CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:52CARMartin Necas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:55TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:50CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50TBLErik Cernak: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 6:27CARBrendan Lemieux: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:06TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
- P3 11:12TBLCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:04TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:04CARDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:04CARDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:04CARDmitry Orlov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:04CARBrendan Lemieux: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:04TBLNick Paul: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:04CARJack Drury: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:29TBLAlex Barré-Boulet: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLemieux – Bunting – Drury5:28
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Aho3:26
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook4:56
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Necas4:27
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Chatfield8:16
xG 0.55–0.03 (94%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Orlov2:09
xG 0.04–0.08 (31%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Orlov – Skjei13:09
xG 0.71–0.83 (46%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Barré-Boulet7:55
xG 0.85–0.50 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Hagel8:09
xG 0.41–0.34 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Jeannot – Merela8:59
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Glendening – Sheary – Eyssimont6:34
xG 0.03–0.13 (20%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Sergachev3:06
xG 0.34–0.07 (84%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- de Haan – Raddysh11:31
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Hedman – Perbix2:52
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).