Tue, Oct 24, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 211 | 214 | 434 |
| PIT | 118 | 012 | 09 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:22PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 7:37DALJason RobertsonAssists: Craig Smith, Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 16:03DALEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–1
- P3 5:22DALThomas HarleyAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 13:51DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:45DALMason Marchment: Charging2 min
- P1 8:45PITDrew O'Connor: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:06DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:53DALWyatt Johnston: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:37PITJake Guentzel: Interference2 min
- P3 2:42PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P3 9:35DALCraig Smith: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Faksa – Marchment5:30
xG 0.54–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Duchene – Seguin7:38
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:57
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston6:23
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Harley10:44
xG 1.06–0.87 (55%)attempts 16–14goals 3–1
- Lundkvist – Harley2:46
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist12:25
xG 0.84–0.97 (46%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – O'Connor – Zohorna5:20
xG 0.68–0.08 (89%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:36
xG 0.85–0.43 (67%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell7:56
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Malkin – Smith – Zohorna4:34
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Graves9:52
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Graves – Shea3:36
xG 0.34–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea5:14
xG 0.60–0.30 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).