Fri, Oct 27, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Minnesota Wild 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 08 | 115 | 05 | 0 | 241 |
| WSH | 28 | 06 | 018 | 01 | 1 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17MINMarco RossiAssists: Marcus Foligno, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:49WSHTom WilsonSHAssists: Connor McMichael, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:14WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 1:16MINRyan HartmanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 4. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 6. MIN Joel Eriksson Ek stopped
- 7. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 8. MIN Ryan Hartman stopped
- 9. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 10. MIN Marcus Johansson stopped
- 11. WSH Sonny Milano stopped
- 12. MIN Marco Rossi stopped
- 13. WSH John Carlson scored
- 14. MIN Patrick Maroon stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:21WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:16WSHAnthony Mantha: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:12MINJake Middleton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:58MINPatrick Maroon: Interference2 min
- P2 12:04WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:02WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:46WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:46MINJake Middleton: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:46WSHDylan Strome: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:51MINPatrick Maroon: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Foligno – Rossi4:03
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Eriksson Ek3:41
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov7:31
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi2:14
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMermis – Middleton12:33
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber2:19
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison5:57
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome11:47
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Mantha – Strome2:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Milano11:27
xG 0.47–0.43 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Malenstyn – Phillips – Protas2:18
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin2:10
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:11
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:36
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).