Sat, Oct 28, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 113 | 010 | 00 | 235 |
| NSH | 16 | 19 | 08 | 11 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:32TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 15:05NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 12:46TORMark GiordanoAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 15:08NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Luke Evangelista · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 2:13NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Luke Evangelista, Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:46NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:11TORTJ Brodie: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:23TORJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:06TORCalle Jarnkrok: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:30NSHColton Sissons: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:18TORRyan Reaves: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:53NSHAlexandre Carrier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:13TORTyler Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:22NSHTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander10:48
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews11:26
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Holmberg5:18
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Domi – Kampf – Knies9:21
xG 0.28–0.40 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren7:08
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Klingberg3:33
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly13:06
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Sherwood – Evangelista8:53
xG 0.41–0.13 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith9:33
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg8:52
xG 0.31–0.57 (36%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Foudy – Tomasino – Parssinen4:56
xG 0.08–0.36 (17%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Josi – Barrie2:04
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Barrie – Lauzon10:06
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Fabbro2:05
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).