Sun, Oct 29, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Colorado Avalanche 0, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 011 | 06 | 023 |
| BUF | 111 | 29 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32BUFJJ PeterkaGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 1:39BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Jeff Skinner, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:16BUFTyson JostAssists: Alex Tuch, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 16:52BUFRasmus DahlinENAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:27COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:28BUFZach Benson: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:07COLTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:50BUFMattias Samuelsson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:28COLNathan MacKinnon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:28COLNathan MacKinnon: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:30BUFJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:33BUFJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:12BUFZach Benson: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:54BUFJeff Skinner: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Olofsson won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Olofsson – O'Connor6:58
xG 0.34–0.08 (80%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Drouin – Rantanen2:38
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:43
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin4:21
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram9:09
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Toews – Byram3:37
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Manson – Girard3:44
xG 0.00–0.03 (10%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Mittelstadt – Peterka8:59
xG 0.85–0.09 (91%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Tuch – Jost – Cozens7:36
xG 0.12–0.34 (27%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs6:41
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Greenway – Thompson – Benson8:40
xG 0.11–0.58 (16%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power10:56
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Bryson – Dahlin2:19
xG 0.02–0.06 (21%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin12:20
xG 0.36–0.50 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).