Sat, Nov 4, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 214 | 315 | 641 |
| TOR | 112 | 110 | 26 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:05TORMitch MarnerAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 16:13BUFJJ PeterkaPPAssists: Owen Power, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 6:28BUFTage ThompsonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–1
- P2 11:22TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 11:56BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Ryan Johnson · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 0:17TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 3:11BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 7:26TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mark Giordano, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 12:48BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Connor Clifton · Deflected, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 18:54BUFAlex TuchENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.74 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:14BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:39TORWilliam Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 19:25BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:16TORDavid Kampf: Holding2 min
- P2 2:42TORMitch Marner: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:59BUFVictor Olofsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:53BUFJordan Greenway: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Mittelstadt – Peterka7:18
xG 0.75–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson12:54
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 16–12goals 1–3
- Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Peterka5:44
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost6:31
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Power9:56
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Power4:23
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Clifton – Dahlin2:26
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Gregor – Holmberg3:03
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Kampf4:12
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Domi – Kampf – Knies5:14
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander11:17
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Rielly3:52
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly12:38
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Rielly – Lagesson2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).