Sat, Nov 4, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Calgary Flames 6, Seattle Kraken 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 113 | 412 | 631 |
| SEA | 210 | 03 | 17 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:56SEAOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:59CGYMartin PospisilAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 16:22SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Yanni Gourde, Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 19:00CGYNoah HanifinPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 1:33CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Nick DeSimone · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 4:00CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Walker Duehr, A.J. Greer · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–2
- P3 18:29SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 19:12CGYMikael BacklundENUnassisted · Snap, 0.43 xG5–3
- P3 19:39CGYRasmus AnderssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:45CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P2 9:38CGYDillon Dube: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:47SEAEeli Tolvanen: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:01SEAJared McCann: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:03CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:03SEAPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Greer – Duehr2:14
xG 0.43–0.26 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Dube9:50
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Pospisil7:39
xG 0.09–0.05 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Mangiapane2:44
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin12:55
xG 0.71–0.17 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Zadorov – DeSimone10:53
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Weegar – Andersson16:31
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestShore – Bellemare – Yamamoto3:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gourde – McCann – Tolvanen6:16
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Kartye – Beniers9:26
xG 0.09–0.32 (22%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Wennberg11:41
xG 0.41–0.78 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Dunn15:02
xG 0.53–0.57 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:56
xG 0.22–0.56 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin10:11
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).