Mon, Nov 6, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 6 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 414 | 06 | 111 | 00 | 531 |
| TOR | 18 | 212 | 212 | 12 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42TORMatthew KniesAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 4:17TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 6:11TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P1 11:27TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P1 15:13TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.25 xG4–1
- P2 2:22TORAuston MatthewsAssists: TJ Brodie, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 5:42TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 1:55TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Nick Robertson, Max Domi · Snap, 0.15 xG4–4
- P3 2:03TORMitch MarnerAssists: Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 17:34TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Calvin de Haan, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–5
- OT 0:46TORCalle JarnkrokGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:03TORMax Domi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 11:59TBLAlex Barré-Boulet: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:48TORMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:01TBLConor Sheary: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:33TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:14TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Paul – Sheary9:19
xG 0.86–0.20 (81%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel14:36
xG 0.49–0.44 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Motte – Cirelli – Barré-Boulet5:57
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Watson – Glendening – Jeannot3:11
xG 0.01–0.33 (2%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Cernak2:16
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev14:17
xG 0.90–0.51 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Cernak – Sergachev4:18
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies12:32
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 15–13goals 4–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson7:58
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Gregor – Kampf2:52
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Kampf3:13
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLagesson – Benoit12:09
xG 0.63–0.07 (90%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly17:28
xG 0.69–0.90 (43%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
- Giordano – Klingberg13:07
xG 0.61–0.99 (38%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).