Wed, Nov 8, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 210 | 39 | 631 |
| TOR | 112 | 18 | 110 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:47TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:11OTTDominik KubalikAssists: Tyler Kleven, Roby Jarventie · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 1:04OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 4:16TORTyler BertuzziAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 14:06OTTJakob ChychrunAssists: Tim Stützle, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 7:42TORNick RobertsonAssists: Max Domi, Calle Jarnkrok · Bat, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 11:56OTTDominik KubalikPPGWGAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 12:41OTTTim StützleAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 15:07OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.24 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:46TORMatthew Knies: Interference2 min
- P1 5:44OTTTravis Hamonic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:28OTTJakob Chychrun: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:02TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:40TORJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Joseph – Stützle12:46
xG 1.00–0.36 (74%)attempts 18–13goals 3–1
- Tarasenko – Kubalik – Chartier3:07
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kubalik – Jarventie6:09
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Chartier – MacEwen – Kelly3:23
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Chychrun18:44
xG 1.15–0.99 (54%)attempts 19–27goals 4–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo4:29
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Kleven2:23
xG 0.04–0.12 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander12:56
xG 1.16–0.09 (93%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson9:39
xG 0.64–0.31 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Marner – Matthews – Knies13:15
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Kampf6:47
xG 0.01–0.09 (8%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Lagesson6:05
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Benoit2:12
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly16:33
xG 0.72–0.49 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).