Sat, Nov 11, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Arizona Coyotes 7, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 211 | 36 | 28 | 725 |
| NSH | 318 | 110 | 114 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:13NSHKiefer SherwoodAssists: Luke Evangelista, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:11NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jeremy Lauzon · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 9:58ARIMichael CarconeAssists: Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 14:05ARITroy StecherAssists: J.J. Moser · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 16:58NSHDante FabbroAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 3:28NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Tommy Novak, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
- P2 7:19ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Logan Cooley, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P2 12:28ARIAlexander KerfootAssists: Travis Boyd, Mathew Dumba · Tip-in, 0.20 xG4–4
- P2 19:07ARIMichael CarconeAssists: J.J. Moser, Connor Ingram · Snap, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 13:57NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Dante Fabbro · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–5
- P3 16:33ARISean DurziPPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley · Slap, 0.07 xG6–5
- P3 18:33ARINick BjugstadENAssists: Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton · Backhand, 0.76 xG7–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:57ARITroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P2 2:53ARIAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:23NSHRyan O'Reilly: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:38NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:53ARIJ.J. Moser: Holding2 min
- P3 4:53NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:44ARIAlexander Kerfoot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:02NSHTommy Novak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Carcone – Cooley8:49
xG 0.87–0.38 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Boyd – Kerfoot – O'Brien6:24
xG 0.41–0.45 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli9:25
xG 0.32–0.70 (32%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:26
xG 0.19–0.72 (20%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Brown – Stecher11:02
xG 0.57–0.63 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Stecher – Välimäki2:53
xG 0.03–0.30 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–2
- Durzi – Moser13:58
xG 0.40–0.70 (36%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:29
xG 0.93–0.45 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Sissons – Foudy – Smith5:25
xG 0.39–0.25 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista6:18
xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Glass – Tomasino – Parssinen6:51
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro13:50
xG 1.02–0.66 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 2–3
- Barrie – Del Gaizo12:10
xG 0.68–0.58 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier12:54
xG 0.57–0.78 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).