Thu, Nov 16, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 29 | 210 | 432 |
| CHI | 16 | 06 | 12 | 214 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:59CHILukas ReichelPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Kevin Korchinski · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:40TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 9:01TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 2:09CHICorey PerryAssists: Jason Dickinson, Boris Katchouk · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 11:53TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Erik Cernak, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 19:11TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:35CHIWyatt Kaiser: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:41TBLMikhail Sergachev: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:51CHIWyatt Kaiser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 4:40CHICorey Perry: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 9:12TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:12CHIConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:12TBLMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:37CHIWyatt Kaiser: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:37TBLNick Paul: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel14:07
xG 0.99–0.01 (99%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Motte – Eyssimont – Jeannot7:53
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Watson – Glendening – Merela4:30
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Cirelli3:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Raddysh10:53
xG 0.88–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:23
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Cernak – Sergachev12:46
xG 0.29–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Dickinson – Katchouk6:44
xG 0.76–0.26 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Raddysh – Reichel11:03
xG 0.02–0.37 (5%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Donato – Entwistle – Johnson7:07
xG 0.14–0.58 (19%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard12:20
xG 0.17–0.79 (18%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Korchinski2:05
xG 0.56–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Vlasic13:58
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Kaiser2:10
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).