Fri, Nov 17, 2023·Avicii Arena, StockholmNeutral site
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 09 | 315 | 329 |
| DET | 07 | 212 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:52DETDaniel SprongUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P2 14:44DETLucas RaymondAssists: Ben Chiarot, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 3:50TORTyler BertuzziAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 13:03TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 14:27TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, William Nylander · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:00TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:49DETMichael Rasmussen: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:26TORTyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:16DETJ.T. Compher: Holding2 min
- P2 2:15TORMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:15TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:15DETMoritz Seider: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:15DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:15TORMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:52TORMorgan Rielly: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P2 15:29TORNick Robertson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:46DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Veleno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander11:19
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson7:03
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann8:05
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies11:36
xG 0.60–0.59 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – McCabe14:56
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:47
xG 0.95–0.80 (54%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Lagesson – Benoit6:58
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSprong – Rasmussen – Kostin8:33
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond11:09
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Veleno11:53
xG 0.15–0.40 (28%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Compher7:55
xG 0.05–0.91 (6%)attempts 3–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider6:56
xG 0.54–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Holl11:39
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere9:59
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).