Sat, Nov 18, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 05 | 112 | 228 |
| CAR | 011 | 111 | 312 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:40PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 13:06CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 2:46CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 9:16PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 11:52CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 19:22CARSeth JarvisENAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:06PITChad Ruhwedel: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:06CARJack Drury: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:22CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:44PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:47PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Smith – Rakell2:01
xG 0.38–0.10 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Rakell – O'Connor7:36
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Zohorna9:34
xG 0.51–0.61 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Nieto – Hinostroza – Acciari3:17
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Graves16:55
xG 1.15–0.86 (57%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Letang – Pettersson2:01
xG 0.02–0.01 (64%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson14:52
xG 0.97–1.08 (47%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Jarvis12:49
xG 1.30–1.00 (56%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov11:10
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Noesen – Bunting – Drury7:31
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook11:46
xG 0.82–0.88 (48%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin15:07
xG 1.23–0.61 (67%)attempts 20–15goals 3–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo7:49
xG 0.72–0.10 (87%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce10:29
xG 0.95–0.74 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).