Fri, Nov 24, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 111 | 011 | 233 |
| BUF | 011 | 09 | 314 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:46PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 16:44PITLars EllerAssists: Matt Nieto · Snap, 0.26 xG2–0
- P3 5:13BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 10:52BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 17:16BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:42PITRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:15PITReilly Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 9:27PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:27BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:18BUFAlex Tuch: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 4:48PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:29BUFOwen Power: Holding2 min
- P3 19:34PITErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P3 19:53BUFMattias Samuelsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:53PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Smith – Nylander10:55
xG 0.75–0.49 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari4:05
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – O'Connor13:32
xG 0.48–0.68 (41%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Eller – Hinostroza – Zohorna8:30
xG 0.21–0.88 (20%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Graves12:56
xG 1.05–0.33 (76%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:41
xG 0.08–0.29 (22%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson14:34
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt12:50
xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs5:25
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson5:16
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Johnson3:32
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin7:34
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Samuelsson – Power3:51
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).