Tue, Nov 28, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 115 | 014 | 06 | 04 | 1 | 139 |
| TOR | 07 | 113 | 011 | 01 | 2 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:29FLAKevin StenlundAssists: Jonah Gadjovich, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 12:54TORNoah GregorUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 2. FLA Anton Lundell stopped
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 5. FLA Sam Reinhart scored
- 6. TOR Max Domi stopped
- 7. FLA Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 8. TOR Nick Robertson stopped
- 9. FLA Evan Rodrigues stopped
- 10. TOR Noah Gregor scored
- 11. FLA Nick Cousins stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 19:33FLANick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:56TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:56TORMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:53FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 11:19FLASam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:19TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:00FLAKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:38FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:56FLAJonah Gadjovich: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:54TORNick Robertson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:17
xG 0.53–0.02 (97%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich5:02
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk9:56
xG 0.44–0.47 (49%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Lundell9:31
xG 0.53–0.77 (41%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola15:21
xG 0.94–0.65 (59%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling14:04
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov9:54
xG 0.40–0.66 (37%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Marner10:51
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Kampf4:35
xG 0.35–0.44 (45%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Nylander – Matthews – Gregor2:28
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson5:54
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit4:13
xG 0.71–0.15 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- McCabe – Timmins3:29
xG 0.63–0.33 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Rielly – Timmins3:18
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).