Sat, Dec 2, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Dallas Stars 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 010 | 013 | 133 |
| DAL | 311 | 314 | 29 | 834 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01DALTyler SeguinAssists: Mason Marchment, Miro Heiskanen · Bat, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 6:28DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 7:39DALJamie BennAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jani Hakanpää · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P1 12:25TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 3:42DALMason MarchmentAssists: Jani Hakanpää, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 12:25DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 14:23DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.11 xG1–6
- P3 13:27DALThomas HarleyAssists: Joe Pavelski, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–7
- P3 14:26DALSam SteelAssists: Radek Faksa, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.15 xG1–8
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:21DALMiro Heiskanen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 16:46DALJoe Pavelski: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:33TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:08TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:39DALJani Hakanpää: Holding2 min
- P3 6:29DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:59DALSam Steel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Jeannot – Barré-Boulet8:13
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Watson – Glendening – Motte9:00
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point11:14
xG 0.76–0.91 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Cirelli – Hagel – Eyssimont8:35
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Raddysh13:06
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Hedman – Perbix12:18
xG 0.84–0.84 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- de Haan – Cernak2:44
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment10:23
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:06
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston8:39
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel9:37
xG 0.45–0.73 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell11:42
xG 1.52–0.31 (83%)attempts 20–9goals 3–0
- Suter – Heiskanen13:27
xG 0.87–0.75 (54%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Hanley – Harley10:36
xG 0.16–0.67 (19%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).