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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 2, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Dallas Stars 8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.

DAL winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:52Shot by Pavelski, saved by Vasilevskiy
  3. P1 0:58Shot by Heiskanen, saved by Vasilevskiy
  4. P1 1:01Goal by Seguin (Marchment, Heiskanen)+16 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Suter, Duchene, Seguin, Marchment, Heiskanen · TBL Kucherov, Point, Cernak, Cirelli, Sergachev

  5. P1 1:14Shot by Stamkos, saved by Oettinger
  6. P1 3:06Shot by Lindell, saved by Vasilevskiy
  7. P1 4:28Shot by Paul, saved by Oettinger
  8. P1 5:30Shot by Pavelski, saved by Vasilevskiy
  9. P1 6:28Goal by Robertson (Pavelski)+12 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Suter, Pavelski, Hintz, Robertson, Heiskanen · TBL Cernak, Cirelli, Sergachev, Hagel, Eyssimont

  10. P1 7:39Goal by Benn (Johnston, Hakanpää)+8 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Benn, Hakanpää, Lindell, Dellandrea, Johnston · TBL Hedman, Paul, Jeannot, Barré-Boulet, Perbix

  11. P1 8:28Shot by Kucherov, saved by Oettinger
  12. P1 9:57Shot by Cirelli, saved by Oettinger
  13. P1 10:08Shot by Johnston, saved by Vasilevskiy
  14. P1 10:23Shot by Johnston, saved by Vasilevskiy
  15. P1 11:13Shot by Eyssimont, saved by Oettinger
  16. P1 11:21Heiskanen: High sticking double minor (4 min)

    On ice: DAL Suter, Smith, Faksa, Steel, Heiskanen · TBL Cernak, Cirelli, Sergachev, Hagel, Eyssimont

  17. P1 11:27Shot by Stamkos, saved by Oettinger4v5
  18. P1 12:15Shot by Paul, saved by Oettinger4v5
  19. P1 12:25Goal by Hedman (Kucherov)4v5+7 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Hakanpää, Faksa, Lindell, Steel · TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Paul, Point

  20. P1 13:39Shot by Faksa, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  21. P1 14:01Shot by Hedman, saved by Oettinger4v5
  22. P1 15:11Shot by Heiskanen, saved by Vasilevskiy
  23. P1 16:46Pavelski: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: DAL Pavelski, Hakanpää, Faksa, Lindell, Robertson · TBL Glendening, Motte, Cernak, Sergachev, Barré-Boulet

  24. P1 17:36Shot by Paul, saved by Oettinger4v5
  25. P1 0:00Period end
  26. P2 0:00Period start
  27. P2 0:27Shot by Pavelski, saved by Vasilevskiy
  28. P2 1:38Shot by Hagel, saved by Oettinger
  29. P2 2:07Shot by Kucherov, saved by Oettinger
  30. P2 2:54Shot by Cirelli, saved by Oettinger
  31. P2 3:42Goal by Marchment (Hakanpää, Lindell)+7 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Duchene, Seguin, Hakanpää, Lindell, Marchment · TBL de Haan, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel, Barré-Boulet

  32. P2 4:25Shot by Paul, saved by Oettinger
  33. P2 4:48Shot by Johnston, saved by Vasilevskiy
  34. P2 5:41Shot by Faksa, saved by Vasilevskiy
  35. P2 6:30Shot by Stamkos, saved by Oettinger
  36. P2 6:54Shot by Harley, saved by Vasilevskiy
  37. P2 8:14Shot by Marchment, saved by Vasilevskiy
  38. P2 8:46Shot by Marchment, saved by Vasilevskiy
  39. P2 10:05Shot by Kucherov, saved by Oettinger
  40. P2 10:33Hedman: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DAL Pavelski, Hakanpää, Lindell, Hintz, Robertson · TBL Hedman, Cirelli, Hagel, Eyssimont, Perbix

  41. P2 11:05Shot by Hintz, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  42. P2 12:04Shot by de Haan, saved by Oettinger5v4
  43. P2 12:19Shot by Harley, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  44. P2 12:25Goal by Pavelski (Harley, Hintz)5v4+3 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Suter, Pavelski, Hintz, Robertson, Harley · TBL Cernak, Cirelli, Sergachev, Hagel

  45. P2 12:46Shot by Hintz, saved by Vasilevskiy
  46. P2 13:08Hedman: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: DAL Smith, Hakanpää, Faksa, Lindell, Robertson · TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Paul, Perbix

  47. P2 13:43Shot by Seguin, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  48. P2 13:52Shot by Marchment, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  49. P2 14:08Shot by Hagel, saved by Oettinger5v4
  50. P2 14:23Goal by Robertson (Benn, Hintz)5v4+1 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Pavelski, Benn, Hintz, Robertson, Heiskanen · TBL de Haan, Glendening, Motte, Raddysh

  51. P2 14:50Shot by Raddysh, saved by Oettinger
  52. P2 16:30Shot by Barré-Boulet, saved by Oettinger
  53. P2 17:39Hakanpää: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DAL Benn, Hakanpää, Lindell, Dellandrea, Johnston · TBL de Haan, Motte, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel

  54. P2 0:00Period end
  55. P3 0:00Period start
  56. P3 0:33Shot by Perbix, saved by Oettinger
  57. P3 2:00Shot by Jeannot, saved by Oettinger
  58. P3 3:20Shot by Barré-Boulet, saved by Oettinger
  59. P3 4:35Shot by Hagel, saved by Oettinger
  60. P3 5:19Shot by Raddysh, saved by Oettinger
  61. P3 6:18Shot by Motte, saved by Oettinger
  62. P3 6:23Shot by Motte, saved by Oettinger
  63. P3 6:29Benn: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DAL Benn, Hakanpää, Lindell, Dellandrea, Johnston · TBL Watson, Glendening, Motte, Sergachev, Perbix

  64. P3 7:55Shot by Kucherov, saved by Oettinger4v5
  65. P3 8:28Shot by Barré-Boulet, saved by Oettinger4v5
  66. P3 9:59Steel: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DAL Smith, Hakanpää, Faksa, Lindell, Steel · TBL Hedman, Paul, Jeannot, Barré-Boulet, Perbix

  67. P3 10:32Shot by Kucherov, saved by Oettinger4v5
  68. P3 10:58Shot by Stamkos, saved by Oettinger4v5
  69. P3 11:19Shot by Kucherov, saved by Oettinger4v5
  70. P3 13:09Shot by Suter, saved by Johansson
  71. P3 13:27Goal by Harley (Pavelski, Suter)0 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Suter, Pavelski, Hintz, Marchment, Harley · TBL de Haan, Glendening, Motte, Cernak, Eyssimont

  72. P3 13:36Shot by Suter, saved by Johansson
  73. P3 13:38Shot by Robertson, saved by Johansson
  74. P3 14:26Goal by Steel (Faksa, Lindell)0 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Smith, Hakanpää, Faksa, Lindell, Steel · TBL Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Cernak, Sergachev

  75. P3 16:12Shot by Duchene, saved by Johansson
  76. P3 16:13Shot by Duchene, saved by Johansson
  77. P3 17:00Shot by Barré-Boulet, saved by Oettinger
  78. P3 17:18Shot by Faksa, saved by Johansson
  79. P3 17:25Shot by Suter, saved by Johansson
  80. P3 0:00Period end
  81. P3 0:00Final