Tue, Dec 5, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Rangers 2, Ottawa Senators 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 216 | 09 | 235 |
| OTT | 210 | 315 | 111 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:00OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Artem Zub, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 18:34OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Josh Norris · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 0:39NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 5:13OTTVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 5:35NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 7:18OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 17:43OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Artem Zub, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 17:10OTTVladimir TarasenkoENAssists: Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:42NYRArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:21NYRJacob Trouba: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:44OTTDominik Kubalik: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 19:19OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:28OTTJosh Norris: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:03OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:03NYRErik Gustafsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:03OTTDominik Kubalik: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:03NYRErik Gustafsson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:39
xG 1.25–0.79 (61%)attempts 16–18goals 1–2
- Pitlick – Vesey – Brodzinski6:36
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Bonino – Cuylle10:16
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin2:18
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren14:12
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller13:27
xG 1.10–1.22 (47%)attempts 16–26goals 1–2
- Gustafsson – Schneider12:13
xG 0.14–0.67 (17%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Norris – Tkachuk12:49
xG 1.06–0.42 (72%)attempts 22–8goals 2–0
- Chartier – MacEwen – Kelly2:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle12:26
xG 0.38–0.70 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Kubalik – Joseph – Greig5:53
xG 0.06–0.66 (8%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub15:25
xG 1.25–0.86 (59%)attempts 28–13goals 2–1
- Bernard-Docker – Sanderson10:29
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Chychrun13:31
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).