Wed, Dec 6, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 04 | 010 | 111 | 125 |
| TBL | 111 | 29 | 07 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56TBLAnthony CirelliPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 8:31TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 17:04TBLTanner JeannotAssists: Michael Eyssimont · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 19:07PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:55PITRyan Shea: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:52PITRyan Shea: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:15TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:36PITReilly Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:18TBLAnthony Cirelli: Holding2 min
- P3 10:31PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:31TBLSteven Stamkos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:52TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Harkins – Nylander3:33
xG 0.22–0.00 (98%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel2:15
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Guentzel5:05
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Malkin – Eller – O'Connor2:33
xG 0.20–0.12 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Shea2:06
xG 0.26–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Graves2:16
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Graves – Pettersson2:46
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Hagel – Barré-Boulet11:25
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Jeannot6:00
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Glendening – Motte – Eyssimont2:15
xG 0.08–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Watson – Glendening – Motte4:05
xG 0.01–0.02 (44%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Sergachev13:36
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Hedman – Perbix11:40
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- de Haan – Raddysh10:11
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).